Former military strongman Prabowo Subianto has for the first time
pulled level or even slightly ahead of the previous favourite, Joko
Widodo, in the Indonesian presidential race, credible polling apparently
shows.
But in a twist, one or more of those polls has been withheld
from publication, apparently for fear of disheartening the Joko camp and
shifting more votes to Mr Prabowo.
A number of sources contacted by Fairfax Media have confirmed
that three credible polling organisations have now measured the gap
between the two candidates at either within the margin of error, or with
Mr Prabowo in the lead.
It’s a remarkable turnaround. Until the campaign began, Mr Joko, the popular Jakarta governor, had a double-digit lead.
But Mr Joko has been flat-footed by his opponent’s populist
rhetoric, bolstered by a big-spending advertising campaign, blanket
media coverage from TV stations owned by Mr Prabowo’s allies, and a
successful “black” campaign of racial and religious smears against Mr
Joko.
In early June the Indonesian Survey Institute said his lead
had narrowed to 6.3 per cent — down from over 20 per cent earlier in the
year. And on Monday, another (less credible) polling company, the
Indonesia Survey Institute, showed Mr Prabowo with 51.2 per cent
compared to Mr Joko’s 48.8 per cent.
But Lowy Insitute research fellow Aaron Connelly wrote on Tuesday
that Indonesia’s most credible pollsters — the international group
CSIS, Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting, and Indikator — had now
judged the race to be neck and neck.
“Prabowo Subianto must now be considered the favourite to win
the July 9 presidential election, a result that was unthinkable just a
month ago,” Mr Connelly wrote.
Fairfax Media has now confirmed with a number of sources that
CSIS finalised a poll on June 15 showing a negligible gap between the
two campaigns, but has refused for 10 days to release it.
Sources say the reason may be because all three have a foot —
either financial or philosophical — in the Joko camp. CSIS executive
director Rizal Sukma, a respected international relations expert,
briefed Mr Joko for his presidential debate last Sunday.
They fear that publishing the information may prompt even
more support to flow to Mr Prabowo in a country where analysts believe a
strong “back the winner” mentality exists.
Neither Mr Rizal nor Burhanuddin Muhtadi, of Indikator,
responded to calls or texts on the subject, and Saiful Mujani of Saiful
Mujani Research and Consulting was in hospital, according to a
spokesman.
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